Weekend Wisdom 8th Feb 2016
Intention is key in form deduction
One of the key talking points in the form dissection prior to Saturday’s Randwick meeting was Craftiness’ handicap. It was put simply to me that he had “too much weight” to win the race! I felt that Bowman’s booking signified that his trainer was undeterred by such talk, however, as I watched the race unfold, firstly in the betting, then in the running, I reformed my opinion.
The betting on Craftiness evinced negativity, reinforced by a conservative ride. Astute punters seek positivity, both in form reading and trainer/jockey intent and clues were available that the horse’s connections would take a “softly, softly” approach. Trainers tend to be weight conscious and Joe Pride’s selection of resumption race should have been noted. He knew the likely impost, and this, in my opinion, would have influenced his preparation of the horse leading into the race. Then Bowman, also conscious of the horse’s “big weight”, didn’t bustle Craftiness early and failed to make use of the horse’s superior pace.
Meanwhile, James McDonald was very positive on Felines. Few mapmakers predicted Felines would race ahead of Craftiness, but this represents a failure to factor in the good vibes from the ultimate winner’s camp. They knew of their fitness edge and weight advantage, and this influenced the circumstances of the race.
Yes, Craftiness had too much weight, simply by virtue of the fact that his trainer, jockey and opponents perceived he had too much weight.
Grand Final Day for Summer Sale Graduates
More intent was on display in the Inglis Classic. The winner had been primed by a preparation involving a trip away, and a resuming run on Saturday’s course. The runner up had a testing trial over 1050m and an elite jockey booking. On the other hand, the favourite was unraced, facing 1200m on debut, and, whilst from the leading stable, the yard is certainly not an early producer of 2yos.
The qualifying conditions of this race, restricted to graduates of a cheap sale, render it a wretched form reference. Nevertheless, the favourite, Wonderful Story, does have excuses.
Female foibles
Subtleties are the delicacy of form analysis. This is a prime reason for the attraction of Saturday racing. Aside from the better quality of horseflesh, form students become aware of the idiosyncrasies on display.
Dublin Lass is well known as a dynamic sit-and-sprint type, best cuddled with cover for as long as possible. Saturday’s feature for the mares, in which she was a short priced favourite, presented her with a wide draw in a walking race. It was a task she seemed to resent, racing on the pace without cover, and she promptly turned it up.
It is important to note two things from this analysis. Dublin Lass started a short price, indicative of her talent at this level. Secondly she found circumstances unfavourable to her preferred racing style, and the poor performance can be overlooked should she find a more suitably run event.
Other notables
Undefeated Kiwi shipper Hasselhoof was astutely noted by Puntersshow teamster John Walter as “One-paced”. This observation came to fruition before the turn in Saturday’s mile, as Hasselhoof duly found himself unable to match the leaders he’d been tracking when they sprinted. Firstly, this is indicative of needing more distance, and secondly, it is the reason local Sydney form is hard to break through; it is easy to appear impressive when you are towelling up runners more one-paced than yourself, but a “turn-of-foot” is required in A Grade.
Heavens Above found a race to suit on the weekend; genuine tempo, appropriate distance, perfect draw, suitable bias. Despite the alignment of planets, she possesses a racing style that will be deadly in fitting group races. She is perfect for the combo of large field/harder grade.
The Sir Brian Crowley quinella pair of Spill The Beans and Counterattack returned resoundingly on Saturday. Draw and stable were key to the result this time, and I expect them hard to split when next they meet.
