Weekend Wisdom 21st Feb 2016
A Tale of Two Favourites
Punters at Rosehill on Saturday were asked to assess the merits of two promising gallopers with Autumn Carnival aspirations. One a three-year-old filly the other a two-year-old colt, both horses were undefeated in their respective public appearances, but perceptive analysis lies in studying the crucial differences that form inspection can reveal.
Astern, the colt, from the elite Goldolphin establishment, may be classed as the Private Schoolboy. His lofty connections were matched by the engagement of leading rider Bowman, and his debut win franked his “Saturday” credentials.
To Be Sure, the filly, is from a high performing but more middle class yard. She is styled as a State Schoolgirl (selective), while her talented rider, Avdulla, presently snapping at the heels of the top echelon, is yet to attain “most valuable player” in the first grade jockey ranks. Her debut victory, despite its silkiness, carries the taint of “Midweek”.
Astern owns the joint, To Be Sure wants a piece of the action.
The framing above of the candidates in question brought considerable influence to bear on the respective contests. And Bowman, aka the pied piper, played a crucial role in both!
To Be Sure lined up in the opening event on the card, named for a talented sprinter a decade back. Her assertive prepost fluctuations were tempered by more bearish trading closer to post time, and the running unfolded in favour of the bears. Bowman, on the somewhat maligned but well enough credentialed Redzel, asked the question of the filly, forcing her to race in the death through a fast first section. I deem that circumstance a brutal posing of said question, forcefully exposing To Be Sure, and leaving her backers nonplussed. We do, however, through a midfield finish under adverse conditions, now have a useful gauge on the filly’s ability.
Zoom forward to the Silver Slipper, and there were no questions asked of Astern. Bowman arrogantly asserted his “right” to control the pace, the three runners with early pace drawn underneath him meekly deferred, and he proceeded to cruise through the first section six (6) lengths slower than he had earlier on Redzel. Even better, Bowman co-opted the despised Rafha’s Choice to ride “gunshot” outside him. Fortune favours not necessarily the brave, but those who demand it as their right.
Life lessons are writ large here. Existence is innately a stressful experience, but humans have constructed a societal structure to deal with that stress, inherently favouring /sheltering some members more than others, but in the main most are afforded some protection from life’s vicissitudes. The price for this comfort is a lack of exposition of talent. We are not informed until the scaffolding is removed and the acid test is applied.
I previewed on Saturday that I expected revelation post Silver Slipper. I was naïve. Concerning Astern we are none the wiser, he remains highly promising. “Handsome is as handsome does”.
Golden Switch
Of the eighty-four (84) candidates in play at Rosehill, twenty-six (26) raced in the lead-up programme at Randwick a fortnight back. On that occasion, with the Randwick rail in the true position, the track was typically nasty to inside runners. Three wide with cover in the running line was the fashionable order of the day.
Some time back on the Punters Show, I coined the term “Golden Switch” to name a pearl that referred to horses likely to find a more advantageous lane in an upcoming event than they encountered at their previous start. Usually this applies to runners drawing and racing inside on a track playing “out wide”. It is potentially confusing to observe an inside draw getting across heels to come wide in the straight, so I nominate each horse’s position at or before the 800m mark (600m in short course) for the purpose of this analysis.
Of the twenty-six Randwick lead up horses, eight raced in the slow lane on the inside, and all bar Press Report switched to the mid/wide draws I deemed would be some advantage on the Rosehill card. The seven “golden switch” qualifiers supplied the only three winners that raced at Randwick fourteen days ago. I speak of Himalaya Dream ($8.50), Rose Of Man ($2.80) and Arab Dawn ($15).
The corollary to note is the failure of the eighteen last start advantaged contestants to supply a winner.
I suspect that many a racecourse demonstration of yesteryear in the days of passionate and enthusiastic racegoers, may have been the subject of a “golden switch”.
Country Chumpionships
Prior to the running of the Parramatta Cup, Goulburn, just two hours’ drive down the Hume highway, was staging the first heat of the Country Championship. Allowing for the country event’s BOBS bonus, the two events had similar prizemoney. That was where the similarities ended.
Betfair turnover on the Rosehill event was four times Goulburn. The TAB win pool was three times larger. Betting interest on a race carrying the same prizemoney was relatively a non-event.
The week leading up to Saturday seemed saturated with gushing media coverage proclaiming the feature at Goulburn to be a “fantastic race”. Punters clearly disagreed. When will the waste end?
It would seem an egregious misallocation of resources to throw so much money at a race that a) punters don’t care for and b) would attract the same field for a fraction of the purse. I referred earlier to the hierarchy in play concerning thoroughbred connections that mimics western society, a class system imperfect but well understood and relatively efficient. Far, far worse is the private fiefdom granted dominion over racing via act of parliament, more easily compared with the former totalitarian regimes of the eastern bloc.
In all this, I take no aim at connections of the contestants of the Goulburn event. I’m an ardent, passionate racing enthusiast deeply concerned by the utter disconnect between consumers (punters) and suppliers (owners/trainers) in the game. Coles and Woolworths are trenchantly criticized for many a sharp practice, but they do an infinitely better job of offering for sale the goods consumers want (or think they want) and ensuring suppliers provide said product.
For some unknown reason, Racing remains outside the purview of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. This oversight is in need of correction.
The Rumpelstiltskin Effect
Racing adherents are well aware of the intricacies of the form, but it may be hard to recall our state of mind when first introduced to the game. Tyro horse players may perceive picking a winner to resemble a sixteen-piece jigsaw puzzle; a few important factors guided by an overarching intuition as to “which is the best horse”. I well remember a clarity of thinking back in 1987, before I had been inducted into the mysteries of form analysis. I knew the pool of Sydney Metropolitan horses just well enough, but not too well, to make confident and sufficiently successful predictions based upon the acceptors names alone.
As the enthusiast delves deeper into his discovered passion, the likely outcome of a race becomes opaque, particularly with the broadening of information available. The phenomenon of “analysis paralysis” is well documented and likely all too well known to those of us who have obsessed over racehorse form. We may even progress to style ourselves “high priests” concerned only with nuances and subtleties that shall be forever hidden from the common folk. All the while bemoaning the element of chance that enables novices to appear geniuses (I was tempted to write genii), and remaining locked in our ivory towers, too fearful to even bet.
By now the puzzle has grown to well over one thousand pieces.
It is at this point that I have observed, most notably in myself, a propensity to become a form storyteller. I shall term this the “Rumpelstiltskin effect”.
Rumpelstiltskin, as the story goes, assisted an imprisoned lass on several occasions, by spinning straw into gold. For my part, I glean second order form variables and weave them into a compelling narrative that I propose will override the lack of substance in my selection’s form. Alas I have deluded myself in the process, and fail to recognize the missing substance.
Rumpelstiltskin’s power vaporised upon exposure of his name, while the golden form narratives tarnish in the harsh light of the betting exchange. Never lose sight of what piqued our interest in the first place. The form, ON FACE VALUE, has powerful predictive power.
