Midweek Rosehill

I mentioned previously that punters relish the prospect of assessing and playing the younger, more lightly-raced horses. Autumn, the back half of the season, fits the bill very well in this regard; 2yos are thickly appearing, while 3yos have become more durable and dependable, but dynamic nonetheless.

There is much youthful flesh on offer today at Rosehill. The occasional midweek fixture typically is conducted on a wide rail, and today’s placement at 6m should prove antipathetic to “closers”. The firm surface looks to suit leaders and front-half rails-in-run.

The programme is headlined by the reappearance of the undefeated Asinara in Race 7 (the “five-to-five”). Saturday racegoers will recall her spectacular late burst on this track the day after New Year, and she seems carnival bound. The local debut of the well-regarded McCreery from the leading yard heightens the piquancy of this event.

There is a muddling look to the speed chart of Race 7, and if the favourite were mine she would be instructed forward from the wide gate to take no prisoners. Where there is talent, lies pace, and I would not be fooled by her rearward lurking last start. Nonetheless, her connections may have their eye elsewhere and adopt the conservative approach, problematic with the rail out.

The two events specifically set aside for 3yos are worthy of comment. Race 4, the sprint, sees a rematch between Southern Legend and Deploy after the former had the best of their clash at Warwick Farm a fortnight back. I found Bowman to be surprisingly casual allowing Clark to assume the lead, and I’m anticipating a more “not going to die wondering” approach on Deploy today. The starting prices last start do point to a good chance of a reverse finish today, but the fly in the ointment is Gerald Ryan’s poisonous record on today’s home track. After three years, 87 runners and only 3 winners, a loss of 71% on turnover must surely be headed in a positive direction soon?

Race 5, the “three forty”, over the middle distance of 1800m, is principally fed by an evening race from Canterbury 12 days ago over 1550m. A brutal pace on that occasion flattered the placegetters, but the tempo today again looks above-average with a capacity field and the kitchen sink thrown at the underperforming Balboa Park; a seven-day backup, blinkers back on, and the leading rider from the outside draw promise to have him fire things up. Despite this reading, the middle division seems hollow, and I look to the filly Self Esteem to sit just off the speed and prove eminently backable. It should be noted that she started shortest at Canterbury and raced the furthest forward.

Today, a midweek card of promise on a Saturday circuit, should prove seminal for the weeks ahead.