Weekend Wisdom 13th March 2016

No Alarms and No Surprises

Enthusiasts encountered a nuance-free programme at Rosehill for the opening day of the western Sydney track’s championship-less segment of the Autumn carnival. Perhaps the only feature not benign about Coolmore Classic day was travelling to and from the course via public transport. Buses replace trains. Enough said.

Warm, dry weather and light irrigation combined to produce a rail-true Rosehill circuit with minimum menace. For those of us witnessing events first hand, it almost had the feel of “on-pacers” day at Randwick a fortnight back, but a deeper inspection of the result charts casts doubts upon this impression.

I contend that a determination of possible track bias may rely on observation of over-achieving performances.

Chimbora, a youngster from an under-performing local yard, was last matched on Betfair at $110. He settled off the pace in midfield and wound up a head behind the highly-fancied winner Souchez at the post.

David Payne has not supplied a Rosehill winner in the past two seasons.

Enigmatic Ghost Protocol is the reigning Taree titleholder. He emigrated to Australia with two wins from ten English starts and lined up in Saturday’s battlers event for his 38th local appearance, CV additions sparse and restricted to Warwick Farm midweek and said country cup. Like Chimbora, he was last matched at $110, and came from the tail of the field to win decisively.

Surely the occurrence of such unexpected events suggest that off the pace was no disadvantage.

Wide Rail - Wide Berth

I wrote on Wednesday with some negativity regarding Brewery’s prospects at Warwick Farm that day. Aside from his wretched city form, his impressive last-start Wyong romp needed the context of an assisted rail position.

His considerably more highly-regarded stablemate, Solicit, was well tried to win Saturday’s feature, the Coolmore Classic. Free-wheeling in the lead, as is her wont, she wound up a respectable third beaten a length, but there seemed no particular bravery in her performance to the eye.

Solicit, in her previous run, had smashed the track record for 1400m at Randwick. Astute players know to take little notice of such headlines, owing to their circumstantial nature.

Of more significance is the fact that her victory was recorded with the rail out six metres, not the widest position at Randwick, but a telling width, nonetheless.

There seems a hollowness attached to winning form on a wide rail, be it assistance via a close-to-the-pace position or mere fence dwelling, and emphasized by disadvantage to other contestants.

Thus I contend that the form on Chipping Norton Stakes day is suspect. Give way to the right, i.e. the “Lay” column on the exchange.

The corollary of the above is that true-rail form can be trusted.

Value

To me, “Value” is the most hackneyed word in the wagering landscape. Racing’s commentariat seem to reach for the word when describing any large price or dividend, irrespective of its relationship to expectation

Value is far better applied to a “perception of worth”.

Last week I quoted American philosopher Robert Pirsig. One of his sayings that left a deep impression upon me goes “between the subject and the object lies the value”.

In our case the interaction between Form student (subject) and racehorse form (object) produces an experience that has value, the quality of which is a function of the assessor’s skill and instinct.

I suspect extended analysis depreciates this value, hinted at in such clichés as “trust your instinct” and “first impressions are best”.

Last Thursday evening my encounter with the form for the nightcap at Rosehill produced an experience of high-quality value. I’m not an avid trial watcher, particularly so with raced horses, but I instinctively perceived High Midnight’s trials this preparation to be exceptional.

Surprisingly, the fact that his runs failed to marry with these trials did not deter me. Usually I override my initial enthusiasm with dispassionate analysis.

My point is that it is tempting to completely systematize one’s approach to horse playing, but the “value” lies in the judgement. Good, bad or indifferent, an interpretation is the value-adding component of form study.

Data collection is static and enabling, Decision-making is dynamic and valuable.

Cinderella

Golden Slipper week has changed. Gone is the steady build-up to the ultimate day of the Rosehill carnival.

The principal lead-ups are now run at Randwick.

My interest lies in whether the switching of the Todman has enhanced its reputation for Slipper prediction. I was surprised by the fact of only five horses achieving the double in 43 years, but the Randwick build-up is possibly a superior conditioner.

Vancouver has set the scene, Kiss and Make Up and Capitalist promise to be players.

From a future viewpoint it is instructive to review past Golden Slipper and slipper trial fields. Many of the contestants are completely forgettable.

Bluntly the Slipper lacks depth and sits on par with the old Saturday flying, or the modern Benchmark 90.

In this case, Prizemoney and Form Value are an ill-fit.

@justideal