Weekend Wisdom 3rd April 2016
Derby Day Didactic
The thoroughbred banquet that was Derby Day at Randwick provided enthusiasts with much to savour.
Winx’s determined domination of the Doncaster, our pre-eminent Mile, achieved despite middling moments of awkwardness.
Chautauqua’s breathtaking finishing burst, overwhelming his see-saw fluctuations.
Clearly Innocent’s amazing turn of sore foot, in the No Overtaking or Passing Lane, after captivating betting ring histrionics.
Rosehill’s carnival instalment was immediately rendered pedestrian by comparison.
Randwick’s surface was described as “Soft”, yet I suspect the prevailing mindset of the players juxtaposed with the ridge of good ground well away from the inside, was most influential in the day’s proceedings.
Early tempo was dawdling in all bar the premier sprint and mile. Riders seemed bedazzled by the stakes and befuddled by the surface.
It was best to draw wide but not sit on a limb, while the marathons afforded advantage to ground saver’s Allegria and Tavago, penny-pinching reaping rich rewards when the company is dour.
The Derby once again confounded its lead up, the Guineas. The demise of eight of the previous ten Rosehill winners at Randwick was extended to nine of eleven when Tarzino, hypnotic in the betting, floundered under a poor ride at the classic distance.
2000m and 2400m are mutually exclusive distances. The preferred lead up for a 2400m event is a race over a similar distance. In the case of the Derby, Tavago’s inferior kiwi form was enhanced to great effect by his seasoning at the trip.
Winx and Waller
Since Winx’s return from Queensland at the dawn of Spring 2015, she has raced and won 7 times. Save her Cox Plate clear-out, she has overcome trip difficulties on each occasion.
The Doncaster represented a further challenge to our current darling. The placegetters who accompanied her home were superbly prepared and admirably suited by the race configuration.
Winx handled herself with aplomb.
Four lengths astern of Azkadellia was another race, for well-performed horses, best described as the Doncaster Consolation.
Waller has now won six Easter Miles.
Notably, his first, Triple Honour, came when racing had just resumed from the hiatus of Equine Influenza.
Prior to EI, Waller’s fame had rested on the less than illustrious Mr Ubiquitous, perhaps an eponymous harbinger of what lay ahead, Ubiquity now our leading trainer’s middle name.
Once Captain Pugwash had declared Racing free of infection, Waller returned with new
purpose, breathing amazing life into Bobby Thomsen’s Danleigh and even taking a 2yo feature with Miss Independent.
The juggernaut had commenced its inexorable ascent.
Post-time softness
Saturday’s racing was also notable for the strong performances of two runners subject to a savage drift from their pre-post markings.
Clearly Innocent’s loss of a leg I have previously alluded to, and had much to do with the late application of bar plates.
El Divino had been priced-up short at acceptance time. The chattering classes of the turf, of which your correspondent might be observed to be an office bearer, proceeded to cast aspersions at said horse and his price.
Friendless on course, El Divino certainly ran up to the esteem he was accorded by fixed-odds assessors.
Two salient observations are applicable to the weekend’s drifters.
Firstly, very little sophisticated money is in play prior to race day, making pre-post fluctuations of little import. In fact, the exposition of prices for several days creates a false sense of their eventual tradability.
Secondly, there is valuable analysis applied to the construction of the opening market. Whilst I suspect the early markings lack an emphasis on the likely direction of trading, they nevertheless represent a worthwhile set of rated prices.
Disparage them at your peril.
A Tale of Two Classics
The Sydney Cup and the Oaks, both set down for decision this Saturday, have a lengthy history of well-defined lead-ups, rendering them ripe for analysis.
The Cup has been principally fed by two events; the Group One Tancred (BMW) at weight-for-age, and the Group Two Chairmans, a handicap.
The Tancred is obviously a higher quality event, but the Chairmans’ potency lies in its closer proximity to the Cup along with the fact that shares the same track.
The past twenty-five runnings have seen 8 winners emanate from the Tancred, whilst the Chairmans has supplied 14 winners.
Of greater interest is the subsequent performance in the Cup of the best finish in each of the lead-ups.
The SP of the Tancred highest placings equates to an expectation of providing 6.5 wins in the Cup, i.e. their cumulative SP percentage is 650%, yet only 3 Tancred highest placings have been victorious.
This meagre return contrasts with the highest placed Chairmans having an expectation of 4.5 Cup winners and actually achieving 5 winners.
The dishonour roll of Tancred participants is extensive. Hartnell unplaced at 4/6, Kellini unplaced at 13/8, Bluetigeroo unplaced at 7/4, Miltak unplaced at 6/4, Subzero 3rd at 6/4.
It is not that the Tancred is an unsuitable lead-up, rather that the conditions are sufficiently dissimilar in both actuality and intent, to render the Tancred hierarchy irrelevant.
This year Who Shot The Barman carries the Tancred curse. It may be that Almoonqith warrants greater attention than his likely quote.
The Oaks narrative is similar. The Storm Queen (Vinery) is a set-weights Group One, the Adrian Knox a Group Three handicap.
Once again, the Storm Queen carries greater esteem, while the Adrian Knox has the characteristics of The Chairmans, i.e. more proximate, same course.
This time it is the Storm Queen that supplies the bulk of Oaks winners, 12 of twenty-five, while the Adrian Knox has provided 7.
However, a similar story unfolds when each of the lead-up’s highest placings are put to the test. The Storm Queen runners have an expectation of 7.86 winners for a return of 6 winners, while the Adrian Knox outperforms its more vaunted cousin, expecting 3.56 winners and achieving 5 Oaks victors.
Some of the shorter-priced Storm Queen Oaks aspirants to founder include Lucia Valentina 3rd at 4/5, Faint Perfume a distant 2nd at 5/4, Saleous inglorious at Evens, and Northwood Plume 3rd at 4/6.
Streama managed to land her Oaks assignment at 2/5, but was gravely threatened by the unheralded Aliyana Tilde.
This year’s Oaks renewal carries less applicability with Single Gaze from the Storm Queen likely to have limited market presence.
Nevertheless, the above preliminary/final relationships are worthy for the future’s reference.
@just ideal
