Weekend Wisdom 15th May 2016
“Move forward. This never happened. It will shock you how much it never happened.”
Don Draper, Mad Men
The caravan has meandered out to Scone and back for the sixth standalone stanza. A pastiche of black type, restricted sales and even the Upper Hunter’s rendition of a Highway event. The stroke of a pen granted all the May double-header races Metropolitan stature, but we have long been accustomed to government by fiat.
I acknowledge the steady diminution of “City” grade over many years, but the Scone allocation smacks of fancy scaffolding supporting a shallow offering, albeit with plentiful numbers. The property investment mantra of “Location, Location” pertains to the NSW racing hierarchy, with gravitas.
A study of Scone 2015 is revelatory in its raw detail. Of the 238 runners deemed to have contested the high-prizemoneyed city class events on offer, barely a third (85) proceeded to a Sydney Metropolitan event at their subsequent start.
It would seem that a majority of connections shrewdly recognized their charge’s potency if positioned Provincially at their next run. An eminently reasonable strategy if you judge the Scone carnival to represent a Provincial high-water mark, handsomely enhancing the candidates’ competitiveness at that level.
If anything, the market slightly undervalued City runners with last-start Scone credentials, ten winners matching betting expectation. A good result allowing for the over-round of Starting Prices.
Interestingly, the first day next-start victors were quarantined to Midweek, while five of the six second day next-start victors won on a Saturday.
The mean or average starting price of a last-start Scone was better than 15/1 with a fraction, with the median a more respectable 8/1.
Ultimately, the mid-May excursion to country NSW is simply a pleasant diversion. The effort of City purse and personnel in a rural location can produce only high quality Provincial fare.
From a Sydney Metropolitan standpoint, the lucrative Scone shenanigans will be shocking in their marginal impact.
Rosehill – Rail Out
Close at hand is the matter of an off-season programme at Rosehill this Saturday. The moveable rail has found its way out to the 6m position.
12 meetings comprising 98 races have been conducted in the past two years at 6m, mostly with the dry ground runners will face this weekend.
Straight up, barrier 1 is the hot performer with 17 wins from an expectation of 12.7. Gate 6 with 13 from 12 is next best, perhaps just wide enough for connections to show some intent to cross those inside?
Leading is golden with the rail out this far. 23 wins when the market predicts only 15. Making all stands tall.
Fence dwellers behind the pace also enjoy some advantage. Contestants to sit rails-in-run improve on their market expectation of 33.4, winning on 36 occasions.
With features to the north and west, highly esteemed riders are thin on the ground. Brenton Advulla will carry the hopes of many this weekend. I hope to inspire him by remarking on his below par efforts with the rail out 6m.
The Gun has landed 3 winners from 50 rides when punters have anticipated 5.7. All three have come in races 1800m or longer. Given Brenton’s overall Rosehill strike rate is more than double this meagre return, improvement may be anticipated.
Interestingly, prior to the last Rosehill meeting when the rail was out three metres, the Gun’s performance at that position was derisory, Deane Martin over the journey his sole success. Lifting Legerity and Religify over the line a fortnight back may prove a turning point.
Tye Angland and Sam Clipperton have performed solidly in their rides at Saturday’s rail position. Angland with 6 winners from 61 rides when expected to win 7.3, Clipperton with 5 winners from 46 rides when the market counted on 6.2. Barrier 1 supplied 3 of his 5 wins.
Sam Clipperton carries my high regard for the forthcoming card, yet he was but a claiming apprentice early in our analysis period.
Chris Waller’s charges are travelling sweetly when the rail is out 6 on their home track. 25 winners from 160 starters at an expectation of 23.5.
Peter, Paul and Mary are clearly on song on the wide rail at Rosehill. The Snowdens have landed 9 winners from 33 runners, far exceeding their predicted 6.
Our man in blue has 10 winners from 48, marginally ahead of the market. Rosehill is John O’Shea’s “least worst” Metropolitan course.
The O’Shea-trained Asinara is a salutary instance of wide rail flattery. She zoomed home on January 2nd after racing on the rails back in the field. Her subsequent performances have been markedly indifferent.
I have previously remarked upon Gerald Ryan’s poor figures at home. 2 winners from 39 when at least 5 might have been expected.
Lady Gai is also underperforming; 5 winners from 46 runners at an expectation of 7.8. Most pertinent is the fact that 18 of those candidates have led and supplied all 5 winners.
The Waterhouse-trained Festivity is the poster girl for the 6m rail. Certain to control from the front from barrier 12, she was never in danger.
Finally, it should be noted that favourites 2/1 or shorter are exceeding expectations at Rosehill rail out six.
@justideal
