Weekend Wisdom 22nd May 2016
“The plural of anecdote is not data”
Jason Hathorn
onemilefourandten.com
Observing the demise of the short-priced Rockolicious, and the softness of Pioneering, in-trade and in-run, sent me ruminating over the form value of post-carnival fixtures. Both Waller-trained gallopers carried last-start close finishes at the course and distance. Neither looked likely on Saturday last.
I reasoned that the “first day back” for the off-season competitors lacked a recent context. The carnival caravan moves on, leaving the stragglers to make up the fields with those who had conducted their recent business at the midweeks.
I discerned that the form from these contests would lack depth, thereby rendered highly vulnerable to x-factor participants seeking their fortune.
Analysis was then applied to the 7 most recent post-carnival meetings.
The autumn fixture is typically at Rosehill featuring the Lord Mayor’s Cup. With Parramatta set to remain Lord Mayorless beyond next year’s event, a temporary retitling to the “Baird-Appointed Administrator’s Cup” may be required.
The Spring fixture is nowadays run at Randwick, coincides with the Caulfield Guineas, and retains the Spring Champion and Angst as vestiges of the preceding carnival.
Placegetters from these programmes were examined for their subsequent performance at a City (Sydney) meeting within 46 days.
My hypothesis that the form had “no legs” proved foundation-less. “First day back” form stood supremely erect recording 26 wins from an expectation of 19.
26 last-start winners returned to the races within the specified period. 10 repeated at an expectation of 7.
The aforementioned citation is derived from a blog posted by an enthusiast/statistician domiciled in the UK. I recommend it to you.
Late Autumn at Headquarters
The mean rainfall for May at Sydney Airport is a tick under 4 inches at 98.5mm, the average maximum temperature 20 degrees.
At the time of writing a patchy rainband moves across Sydney, unlikely to deliver significant precipitation.
The first 25 days of May 2016 have observed 1/25th of the average monthly rainfall, 2 of those 4mm recorded on day one. The mean maximum temperature has been a balmy 25 degrees, 5 above average.
Saturday is anticipated to be cool. A strong westerly wind is likely to buffet the outside division when racing down the side, lending assistance to rails dwellers.
Randwick races for the second time since the Carnival. Despite its slow-drying nature in recent years, the unseasonal warmth and lack of moisture ensures a firm surface. The rail moves out to the 3m position.
There have been eleven meetings in the past three years at Saturday’s rail position. Only one was rain-affected, the corresponding meeting last year (23/5/15), a Heavy 9. One programme was conducted without the rail in the true position at the meeting prior (7/3/15). Interestingly it was the only time my notes record a preference for lower draws and inside running.
Analysing the 928 runners across 94 races, I found little to remark upon in the barrier statistics. Barrier 1 seems no worse or better than the others. Barrier 9 is flying, barrier 10 is not.
In-running positions, however, lend themselves to a narrative.
Leaders have won 18 races against an expectation of 11.7. Rails-in-run have won 19 races but were anticipated to perform significantly better (28+).
Of the jockeys plying their trade this weekend, Clark, Collett and Avdulla have registered worthy performances, in the order of writing.
Reith remains winless at 3m after 39 rides.
With the strong preference for leading, unsurprisingly Lady Gai is the hot trainer. 17 wins from an expectation of 11.5. 11 of the 17 made all.
Waller and O’Shea have performed solidly, without the vanguard benefit. The Man in Black has won 16 races, only 1 leader assisting, while the Man in Blue has managed 10 wins, none from the front.
The Snowdens have had little impact at the 3m rail. 3 wins when a couple more were anticipated is relatively lacklustre.
Meanwhile, the yard of the moment, Team Hawkes have recorded a solitary winner from 25 runners.
@justideal
